Senior Trader Daily Update 02 August 2017

Good morning everyone.
 
Choppy / volatile trade was seen on Tuesday with the USD fluctuations the main driver.
 
During Far Eastern trading, XAU/AUD was under early pressure but erased the entirety of its losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged which initially sent the AUD/USD lower, but this too was quickly reversed. XAU/AUD continued its advance during US trading as soft economic data from the US led investors to continue seeking alternatives to the US Dollar for the time being.
 
XAU/AUD is doing some constructive technical work with support being provided by an embryonic trendline which today comes in at AUD 1580. The shorter term 5 and 21 Day moving averages have now crossed and the probability has increased for the market to advance towards Fibonacci retracements of the AUD 1728 to 1552.50 down move between June 6th and July 20th, which present at AUD 1594 (23.6%), 1619.50 (38.2%), 1640.25 (50.0%).
 
In XAU/USD terms, the market continues its pattern of higher highs and higher lows and the only question really, is whether gold will be able to take out the technically and psychologically important USD 1300 level at a third attempt, having already been thwarted just ahead of that crucial level on the 17th of April and the 7th of June. If it is third time lucky for XAU/USD, then momentum / trend following fund buying is likely to kick in.
                                                                                                                                                      
Good luck.
 
Regards,
Andre