Highlights from the ABC Bullion Precious Metal Forum: Gold and the New World Order

This week, ABC Bullion was proud to host our latest Precious Metals Forum: Gold and the New World Order.

Held at the Ivy Ballroom Sydney, the event was fully sold out, with over 700 attendees joining us for an insightful evening of education and networking.

Headlined by Jim Rickards, the forum also included keynote speeches from Wayne Bramwell, CEO and Managing Director at Westgold Resources (ASX:WGC) and Nicholas Frappell, Global Head Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery.

David Tait, CEO at the World Gold Council, also delivered a guest speech, with the forum concluding with a panel session featuring both Nicholas Frappell and Jim Rickards, as well as Shaokai Fan, Head of Asia Pacific (ex-China) and Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council.

Below, we provide key takeaways from the forum, as well as shares answers to questions that were sent in from the audience.

Key Takeaways

1. Gold Prices Have Risen a Lot Since ABC Bullion Precious Metal Forums Commenced

The first chart presented on the night provided context for what was to follow, showing the AUD gold price in August 2016, August 2019, August 2023, on the days that ABC Bullion had previously held similar forums.

Back in 2016, in the immediate aftermath of Brexit though prior to Donald Trump deciding to run for President, the gold price was trading just below AUD $1,750oz. It has risen more than AUD $3,250oz since – outperforming almost all other major asset classes since.

2. Finding Fair Value for Gold

Nicholas Frappell spoke about gold in the new epoch, looking at the changing geopolitical landscape, and the continued questions regarding global trade.

He shared the following slide, which looks at the how the gold price has deviated from ‘fair value’ (as measured by Charlie Morris of Atlas Pulse) since 2022, which is when the Russian invasion of Ukraine commenced.

It highlights the fact that gold prices are no longer purely being driven by ‘market factors’ (like movements in the USD and bond yields), with nation state actors busily acquiring bullion as a matter of strategic importance.

3. Gold isn’t Getting Any Easier to Find

Wayne Bramwell, CEO and Managing Director of Westgold, gave an excellent talk on the outlook for gold mining in Australia, and the various factors driving the market.

From talent acquisition, to engaging with local communities and regulators, there is no doubt the gold mining industry is a bright spot in the Australian economy, with 300 tonnes of gold, valued at almost AUD $50 billion, set to be mined in Australia this year.

That said, the outlook for gold production has its challenges, with the rate of discoveries falling. This is evidenced in the chart below.

Gold clearly isn’t getting any easier to find. It will remain scarce, with a total supply that is incredibly stable.

Those factors will continue to give investors confidence in its status as a safe haven and long-term store of wealth.

4.Can America Escape the Debt Trap

The final keynote for the night, Jim Rickards, covered many topics, most of which related to the goals of the Trump administration, and the policy objectives being pushed by key officials, from United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, to Stephen Miran, the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Rickards noted that the Trump administration won’t meaningfully reduce deficits or total debt, but that their policies to stimulate nominal GDP growth (driven by both headline growth and inflation), as well as increase oil production, should see debt to GDP ratios fall.

Rickards also pointed out that the United States had been through similar periods in the past, with the below chart evidence of the effective deleveraging that took place in the United States between 1945 and 1980.

Most importantly, Jim Rickards shared his view that the mania stage of this gold bull market hasn’t even started, with the potential for much more upside in the future.

The Launch of the ABC Bullion Gold Decumulation Plan (GDP)

It was almost 10 years ago, at the ABC Bullion Precious Metal Forum in August 2016 that ABC launched its Gold Saver program, Australia’s first direct debit auto-investment solution that allowed any Australian with a bank account access gold and silver, with investments from as little as $50 per month.

That product has seen a near fivefold increase in usage in the last 3 years alone and helped put precious metals within the reach of millions of Australians households.

As expected, it is particularly popular with millennials and Gen-Z investors who are closer to the start of their wealth creation journey.

At Gold and the New World Order, ABC proudly launched another Australian first, the ABC Bullion Gold Decumulation Plan (GDP).

GDP works as a kind of reverse gold saver. Rather than making small, fixed dollar investments into gold on a weekly, fortnightly or monthly basis, clients of GDP will make a larger initial investment into gold

At the same time, customers will simply tell us:

• How much money they would like to receive in monthly cashflow from their GDP account

• The month they would like those cashflow payments to commence

• The bank account they want funds remitted too.

Behind the scenes, ABC Bullion will fund that cashflow by automating the buyback of the required amount of metal, based on spot prices at the end of each month, ever so fractionally reducing the amount of gold held in the clients GDP account.

Apart from the ability to provide regular cashflow while remaining invested in precious metals, GDP’s features include:

Top Up: Boost your GDP with top up investments

• Flexibility: Alter or pause monthly cashflow requests to suit your lifestyle needs.

• Liquidity: No lock in period. You can sell your holdings anytime.

• Tangibility: Convertible into hallmarked ABC Bullion bars, coins or minted tablets.

• Security: Backed by ABC Bullion and the LBMA, SGE & CME accredited ABC Refinery

• Low Cost: No ongoing storage fees and transparent margins

• Metal Deposit Capability: Investors with existing holdings of LBMA accredited physical bullion can deposit these holdings with ABC Bullion and have them added to their GDP account.

We believe GDP will be particularly popular with Australian’s either in, or approaching retirement, as well as SMSF Trustees.

SMSF trustees have been turning to precious metals in record numbers in the past 15 years, and according to Deloitte research, already comprise the largest share of the post-retirement market segment of the Australian Superannuation Sector.

These investors typically look for three things – growth, stability, and cashflow.

GDP can deliver on all three.

To really help visualise the power of saving in gold while receiving regular cashflow, we shared the following chart, which showed the outcome of

• Putting AUD $100,000 into gold at the end of December 1999

• Drawing $500 a month in cashflow from that date to June 2025, with that cashflow funded by fractional sales of gold

The chart highlights that by June 2025, an investor who had taken this approach would have generated AUD $153,000 in cashflow payments – or more than 1.5x their original investment.

Their remaining gold balance would have been worth more than AUD $420,000 at the end of June 2025, or more than 4x their original investment.

The past is no guarantee of the future, and no one can be 100% certain how gold (or silver) will perform in the years to come. But history shows how powerful saving in gold can be, with GDP making it easy to receive regular cashflow from that gold, funded through fractional sales.

We have been overwhelmed with the interest in this product from our client base since Tuesday night, as well as the extensive media interest, and look forward to bringing GDP to market in Q4 this year.

Questions From the Audience

Finally, we wanted to share some questions from the audience that came in ahead of and indeed after the forum. Some of these weren’t able to be answered on the night given time considerations, and the heavy focus on central bank demand.

What indicators should I consider to determine the optimal timing for selling gold, given that I’ve held it for over five years?

ABC Bullion can’t give specific advice about buying or selling precious metals. Factors that investors often consider include age, employment status, cashflow or income requirements, tax considerations, as well as the outlook for other asset classes (both in absolute terms as well as relative to precious metals) that one might buy into if they were considering selling all or part of their precious metal portfolio

If a new investment opportunity arises—such as property investment—would it be more prudent to liquidate the gold to fund the deposit, or retain the asset? If retention is advised, what would be a reasonable holding period?

As per the above question, ABC Bullion can’t give specific advice about buying or selling precious metals. In a hypothetical scenario like the one above, investors would likely want to consider the risk and return potential of the various assets, as well as their liquidity profile.

How does the panel think about Gold as an Asset Allocation in 2025? Prices have been just about flat for a while but with global markets creating so much noise in tariffs, war, etc., how does the average investor think about investing in gold?

Given every investor is unique, it is hard to say what the average investor thinks when it comes to gold, or indeed any other asset class. At ABC Bullion, across our client base a whole, we have seen a huge surge in interest when it comes to investing in gold (as well as silver and platinum).

As a general rule, the clients that we speak to cite several common themes that have encouraged them to allocate to precious metals, including;

• The diversification and portfolio stability precious metals, especially gold, have provided in the past

• The strong long-term returns precious metals have generated, which many expect to continue

• The inflation protection that gold and silver have provided historically, as well as their historical outperformance in periods interest rates are falling.

• The liquidity and simplicity of buying and selling gold.

Can you shed some light on the situation around whether the gold count in Fort Knox is actually what its reported to be. Will Trump perform an audit or will an independent audit be allowed?

This is not something we have any particular insight on, nor view upon.

People in recent times have been quite active with Cryptocurrencies (BTC specially), and with a lot of global leaders are bullish on this. Do experts think that there might be a world where countries would prefer storing BTC as a reserve instead of gold? What would the impact be on gold prices here?

We believe central banks and nation states will continue to want to diversify their reserve portfolios, as has very much been the trend in the past few years. Gold is likely to remain a focal point of this diversification effort. We would be surprised to see Bitcoin gain meaningful ‘market share’ as a reserve asset given its still relatively new, and the continued concerns regarding the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. We’d also note that gold prices have risen strongly since Bitcoin was launched (and with substantially less volatility) so the two can co-exist together.

Is there any relationship between crypto market cap and gold prices? If the crypto market cap doubles in next 2-5 years, would that impact gold price forecasts?

We have not observed a meaningful relationship, though in part this is largely due to the fact that Bitcoin is still less than 20 years old, and arguably hasn’t endured a full market cycle as yet.

Cryptocurrencies may continue to grow, but we do not expect any potential success or failure of anyone cryptocurrency, or indeed cryptocurrencies as a whole, to meaningfully impact the outlook for gold, or the reasons people include gold and other precious metals in their portfolio.

Do we see developed market central banks increasing their gold reserves – or is the foreseeable future likely a continuation of current trend, where developed markets sit tight, and emerging markets dominate buying as they play catch up.

The consensus view of the panel on the evening was that the central bank gold demand story would almost certainly continue to be driven by surging demand from emerging markets, with holdings amongst developed market nation states likely to remain static. The World Gold Council noted that the outlook for central bank gold demand remains very bright, with record numbers of central banks stating they plan to increase their gold allocations.

Will silver outperform gold – and is the gold to silver ratio (high by historical standards) still relevant as a metric of overvaluation/undervaluation between the two metals?

The panel did discuss the outlook for silver. Given the dual drivers of demand for silver (industrial and monetary/investment) there was a view that silver will also participate in any precious metal bull market run alongside gold, though some were of the view the gold to silver ratio is no longer as relevant as it once was, given how the market structure for both metals has evolved in recent decades.

What is the outlook for the Australian dollar, and will it rise or fall vs the US dollar in the period ahead?

Panellists were largely of the view the Australian dollar may outperform, with this view driven by the fact that

a). Australia is such a commodity rich country, so a period in which all commodities rise should be one in which the AUD performs well, and

b). A weakening USD is a policy objective of the United States Treasury

It should be noted that while the AUD could well rise from here, it has sunk to much lower levels in prior bear markets, including at the height of the GFC when it fell below USD $0.50.

Perhaps most importantly, irrespective of the view on one currency vs the other, the view of the panel was that precious metals remain a worthy holding in a portfolio, with both gold and silver likely to continue to protect and build wealth.

On behalf of everyone at ABC Bullion, and the broader Pallion Group, we would like to thank everyone that attended the forum on Tuesday night.

Jordan Eliseo
General Manager, ABC Bullion

^{Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited (ABN 82 002 858 602) (ABC). The information contained in this document or internet related link (collectively, Document) is of a general nature and is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to constitute advice, nor to influence any person in making a decision in relation to any precious metal or related product. To the extent that any advice is provided in this Document, it is general advice only and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs (your Personal Circumstances). Before acting on any such general advice, we recommend that you obtain professional advice and consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your Personal Circumstances. If the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition of any precious metal or related product, you should obtain independent professional advice before making any decision about whether to acquire it. Although the information and opinions contained in this document are based on sources, we believe to be reliable, to the extent permitted by law, ABC and its associated entities do not warrant, represent or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is accurate, complete, reliable or current. The information is subject to change without notice, and we are under no obligation to update it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. If you intend to rely on the information, you should independently verify and assess the accuracy and completeness and obtain professional advice regarding its suitability for your Personal Circumstances. To the extent possible, ABC, its associated entities, and any of its or their officers, employees and agents accepts no liability for any loss or damage relating to any use or reliance on the information in this document. It is intended for the use of ABC clients and may not be distributed or reproduced without consent. © Australian Bullion Company (NSW) Pty Limited 2020.}